A series of posts and my own response on The Wiire encouraged me to write this followup.

I have read and responded to many comments here and on Blogcritics…many well reasoned arguments that have caused excellent debate.

Now, I obviously expected to take backlash from this article. I’m well aware of the excitement being generated over the Nintendo Wii and I think it’s great that many gamers seem up to the challenge of a completely new style of play. It’s promising.

I’ve been writing about games and technology for a long time and based on what I said in my article, It is my opinion that the Wii will be ahead of its time and end up #3 over its lifespan compared to Playstation 3 and Xbox 360.

But certainly, if we’re going that way, Wii will open the door to a future generation of “player motion” consoles. The main point of my article, however, was that I don’t think gamers are 100 percent ready for a total immersion into this completely new technology and never-before-seen style of play.

You are definitely, definitely looking at an Xbox 360 screenshot

I gave the Sony controller points–knowing full well that it doesn’t have the same capabilities as the Wii Remote–because it is a “baby step” into this technology. I never said it was a better controller, and it might not be in the end. But it is a conservative step in an industry where major innovations (changes) seem to always have a guinea pig. Sony’s marketing has been terrible with regards to the Playstation 3. Their E3 showing, as we all know, was shameful. I properly prodded Sony for that and even hinted that the departure of a major public relations person at Sony might be related to their E3 failure.

The Nintendo Wii E3 video is a work of genius. It shows a diverse age group, including people that don’t normally play video games such as grandmothers and an older couple playing a golf game. From a public relations perspective, it’s perfect. If it works, this effort will go down in history as one of the great technology marketing initiatives.

Major changes like this have always taken a few steps to become mainstream. The analog stick that we saw on the Nintendo 64 took a lot of criticism but now analog is the standard on this generation of consoles. It took the N64 to get us ready for it. The D-pad back in those days was another revolution that gamers took their time warming up to at first.

Maybe ‘fail’ was a strong word to use. I meant that in terms of market share being below the competition over the next few years–much like I predicted about the Dreamcast several years ago.

The Wii will be the first step toward what could be a new standard of playing, but my point is that history shows that new standards are rarely completely ingrained in American video game culture with the first try, which happens to be the Nintendo Wii in this case.

So, critique the article and argue with me, but please take the time to read the whole article first, and I don’t respond to personal attacks. (I actually got an e-mail saying: “I didn’t read your article, but you’re a moron for saying that!”) I’ve responded to some good comments on here as well as Blogcritics that were completely against my argument, but that were well reasoned and thought out.

As for the screenshots, the one in question is assuredly from the Xbox 360. You can click HERE to verify that. That link will take you to the EA Sports E3 shots for Madden 07 on the Xbox 360.

I don’t buy it.

I like the small controller. I like the backward compatibility. I even like the concept and active movement by the player. But I don’t buy it.

Let me say for the record, I hope it does well. I hope it’s a success. I even hope it is the new revolution in video gaming. But there is no way Nintendo Wii will be a mega-hit in the United States.

Nintendo has a whole iPod-looking web site up right now dedicated to their new, small form factor game console. They have gone back to their roots with signature franchises like Super Mario, Metroid and The Legend of Zelda. This is no surprise, Nintendo always phones home when it’s taking a risk. Two Italian guys, some swords and Excite Bike (Excite Truck in Wii’s case) didn’t save Gamecube, and nothing is going to make Wii an American hit on the scale of Xbox, Xbox 360, and all the numerical Sony platforms. The Public Relations Guys and Girls on all sides are trying to chip away at public opinion as we speak.

Wii has had plenty of publicity. Most videogame consoles tend to generate a fair amount of buzz. Nintendo clearly beat Sony in public relations efforts at The Electronic Entertainment Expo or E3.

E3 is often the soapbox that media corporations use to unleash their latest and greatest onto the world. For all intents and purposes, Nintendo swept the hype awards.

Here are a few peaks at what E3 looked like if you weren’t there.
Wii Promo Video 1
Wii Promo Video 2
Wii Tennis demonstrated

Sony’s E3 experience (positive version)
Warhawk for Playstation 3
Metal Gear Solid 4 Preview. They should have gotten the English-speaking actors for E3.

But,here is the reaction some people are giving Sony’s E3 showing

Sony gave a release date, November 17, 2006. They gave a price, which is expensively $499-$599 depending on the hard drive configuration. They’re even offering their complete online gaming experience for free.

Maybe this is why their marketing initiative flopped at E3.

Sony gave too much away—despite the price of the Playstation 3, which I expect to drop by $100 before the launch. They said, here it is, it’s great, here’s when you’ll get it and here’s everything you’ll get.

Take another look at the first Nintendo Promo Video. No prices; no exact release date. All you’re getting here is a high energy video in a high energy booth at E3 that teases the assembled journalists so that they’ll want more.

Sony put motion sensors into their new controller—in effect this could be better than the Wii controller because no external hardware will be required by the Playstation 3. However, they kept the exact same looking “dual shock” design that the original Playstation had. Wii’s controller is different it looks like nothing you’ve ever seen before. Thus, you want to touch it, feel it and get to know the Wiimote. It may offer absolutely sub-par gaming, but it’s different and journalists love different.

So, Nintendo won the public relations battle at E3 over Sony. Nintendo gets a point.

In other news, Molly Smith, senior director of communications and brand development, one of the top public relations officials at Sony, quit June 1. Gamespot reported that the departure came as the result of changes being made at the public relations level, which included bringing in a former THQ executive.

A problem of specs

Simple problem: Wii only supports up to 480p resolution. Xbox 360, released over a year before the Wii will be launched, already supports 1080i resolution. All Xbox 360 games run at a minimum of 720p. Gamepro confirmed what I had suspected as well, Wii will have no digital audio port. This means you’re limited not only to low resolution graphics (and trust me, 480p will be low resolution by the end of the year) and two channel audio. And as nice as Prologic is, it is still just two chanels of red/white RCA plug audio.

Playstation 3, according to Gamespot will feature support for up to 1080p resolution and will boast built-in HDMI ports (NOTE: this has changed and the $599 version will have HDMI and the $499 model will not) and optical digital audio supporting Dolby Theater Sound.

Nintendo Wii will not feature built-in DVD video support. An external dongle will be required. Playstation 3 will support not only DVD but next generation Blu-ray technology. Playstation 3 will be the only console at the time of release to support that technology.

An Xbox 360 and a Wii screenshot of EA Sports’ Madden NFL 2007.

Nintendo boasted their new and unique style of gameplay. Nintendo president Satoru Iwata lays out the philosophy:

With each passing year, video gaming has become an exclusive experience. The complexities of some of the newest games have alienated those who used to play games with their entire families. Wii changes all that. Nintendo has created the most inviting, inclusive video game system to date. Thanks to our unique controller, anyone of any age or skill level can pick up and play games on Wii.

I have to say, I agree. Look, when Doom came out in 1994, it basically created the three-dimensional action genre that we know today. And I played that game so much that I am sure arthritis is in my future. But it was simple. Arrows to move, control to shoot, space to open doors. If you really wanted to get creative, you could hold down the Alt key to move side-to-side. Atari featured one button and a joystick to move; NES was two buttons; Sega Genesis was three; Super Nintendo four, and added two on top, and it has risen exponentially since. Nobody is going to argue that gaming has gotten complex.

The learning curve has definitely risen, but this is the price you pay for a better gaming experience. I can play John Elway’s Quarterback for the NES. It features the blue guys versus the red guys. EA Sports has a contemporary solution for modern consoles in Madden NFL 2007.

Sometimes, you have to learn how to fly before you’ll be ready to take off.

The trade off with Wii is that you get easy to play games with obsolete graphics and sound technology. Some people in this country are willing to pay $6,000 for a gaming PC because they want the best possible graphics and sound technology. Price point is not going to make of break any videogame console in 2006.

Conclusion

The Playstation 3 has what gamers want, great graphics and great sound. Pair that with the selection and variety of games available to the Playstation users, and you have a winner. American gamers are simply not ready to use their other senses in gaming yet, especially when Wii isn’t even trying to max out the visual and audible parts first.

The end result will be in the demographics. Nintendo is marketing to the “masses,” otherwise known as people that don’t currently play games. Sony is marketing to gamers, and gamers want digital audio and high definition video right now.

Here is what I do believe.

Nintendo Wii will gradually continue to be hyped until its release in late fall. It will be priced below the Playstation 3. It will sell very well during the holiday season among families with younger children, new to gaming. It will sell well among hardcore gamers in the 18-28 age range.

It will be one of the most amazingly modded systems of all time.

There is so much potential among those that want to convert to “moving games” that I certainly think that you’ll see baseball bats, golf clubs, guns and more that employ the Wii technology. I think standup “arcade-style” mods of the Wii will come about. A few, very motivated devotees will even create “Wii rooms” in their houses for a full spatial Wii experience. I think the Wii will fare much better than the Sega Dreamcast did, but I don’t think we’re on the eve of a revolution. I just don’t buy it.