I don’t buy it.
I like the small controller. I like the backward compatibility. I even like the concept and active movement by the player. But I don’t buy it.
Let me say for the record, I hope it does well. I hope it’s a success. I even hope it is the new revolution in video gaming. But there is no way Nintendo Wii will be a mega-hit in the United States.
Nintendo has a whole iPod-looking web site up right now dedicated to their new, small form factor game console. They have gone back to their roots with signature franchises like Super Mario, Metroid and The Legend of Zelda. This is no surprise, Nintendo always phones home when it’s taking a risk. Two Italian guys, some swords and Excite Bike (Excite Truck in Wii’s case) didn’t save Gamecube, and nothing is going to make Wii an American hit on the scale of Xbox, Xbox 360, and all the numerical Sony platforms. The Public Relations Guys and Girls on all sides are trying to chip away at public opinion as we speak.
Wii has had plenty of publicity. Most videogame consoles tend to generate a fair amount of buzz. Nintendo clearly beat Sony in public relations efforts at The Electronic Entertainment Expo or E3.
E3 is often the soapbox that media corporations use to unleash their latest and greatest onto the world. For all intents and purposes, Nintendo swept the hype awards.
Here are a few peaks at what E3 looked like if you weren’t there.
Wii Promo Video 1
Wii Promo Video 2
Wii Tennis demonstrated
Sony’s E3 experience (positive version)
Warhawk for Playstation 3
Metal Gear Solid 4 Preview. They should have gotten the English-speaking actors for E3.
But,here is the reaction some people are giving Sony’s E3 showing
Sony gave a release date, November 17, 2006. They gave a price, which is expensively $499-$599 depending on the hard drive configuration. They’re even offering their complete online gaming experience for free.
Maybe this is why their marketing initiative flopped at E3.
Sony gave too much away—despite the price of the Playstation 3, which I expect to drop by $100 before the launch. They said, here it is, it’s great, here’s when you’ll get it and here’s everything you’ll get.
Take another look at the first Nintendo Promo Video. No prices; no exact release date. All you’re getting here is a high energy video in a high energy booth at E3 that teases the assembled journalists so that they’ll want more.
Sony put motion sensors into their new controller—in effect this could be better than the Wii controller because no external hardware will be required by the Playstation 3. However, they kept the exact same looking “dual shock” design that the original Playstation had. Wii’s controller is different it looks like nothing you’ve ever seen before. Thus, you want to touch it, feel it and get to know the Wiimote. It may offer absolutely sub-par gaming, but it’s different and journalists love different.
So, Nintendo won the public relations battle at E3 over Sony. Nintendo gets a point.
In other news, Molly Smith, senior director of communications and brand development, one of the top public relations officials at Sony, quit June 1. Gamespot reported that the departure came as the result of changes being made at the public relations level, which included bringing in a former THQ executive.
A problem of specs
Simple problem: Wii only supports up to 480p resolution. Xbox 360, released over a year before the Wii will be launched, already supports 1080i resolution. All Xbox 360 games run at a minimum of 720p. Gamepro confirmed what I had suspected as well, Wii will have no digital audio port. This means you’re limited not only to low resolution graphics (and trust me, 480p will be low resolution by the end of the year) and two channel audio. And as nice as Prologic is, it is still just two chanels of red/white RCA plug audio.
Playstation 3, according to Gamespot will feature support for up to 1080p resolution and will boast built-in HDMI ports (NOTE: this has changed and the $599 version will have HDMI and the $499 model will not) and optical digital audio supporting Dolby Theater Sound.
Nintendo Wii will not feature built-in DVD video support. An external dongle will be required. Playstation 3 will support not only DVD but next generation Blu-ray technology. Playstation 3 will be the only console at the time of release to support that technology.
An Xbox 360 and a Wii screenshot of EA Sports’ Madden NFL 2007.
Nintendo boasted their new and unique style of gameplay. Nintendo president Satoru Iwata lays out the philosophy:
With each passing year, video gaming has become an exclusive experience. The complexities of some of the newest games have alienated those who used to play games with their entire families. Wii changes all that. Nintendo has created the most inviting, inclusive video game system to date. Thanks to our unique controller, anyone of any age or skill level can pick up and play games on Wii.
I have to say, I agree. Look, when Doom came out in 1994, it basically created the three-dimensional action genre that we know today. And I played that game so much that I am sure arthritis is in my future. But it was simple. Arrows to move, control to shoot, space to open doors. If you really wanted to get creative, you could hold down the Alt key to move side-to-side. Atari featured one button and a joystick to move; NES was two buttons; Sega Genesis was three; Super Nintendo four, and added two on top, and it has risen exponentially since. Nobody is going to argue that gaming has gotten complex.
The learning curve has definitely risen, but this is the price you pay for a better gaming experience. I can play John Elway’s Quarterback for the NES. It features the blue guys versus the red guys. EA Sports has a contemporary solution for modern consoles in Madden NFL 2007.
Sometimes, you have to learn how to fly before you’ll be ready to take off.
The trade off with Wii is that you get easy to play games with obsolete graphics and sound technology. Some people in this country are willing to pay $6,000 for a gaming PC because they want the best possible graphics and sound technology. Price point is not going to make of break any videogame console in 2006.
Conclusion
The Playstation 3 has what gamers want, great graphics and great sound. Pair that with the selection and variety of games available to the Playstation users, and you have a winner. American gamers are simply not ready to use their other senses in gaming yet, especially when Wii isn’t even trying to max out the visual and audible parts first.
The end result will be in the demographics. Nintendo is marketing to the “masses,” otherwise known as people that don’t currently play games. Sony is marketing to gamers, and gamers want digital audio and high definition video right now.
Here is what I do believe.
Nintendo Wii will gradually continue to be hyped until its release in late fall. It will be priced below the Playstation 3. It will sell very well during the holiday season among families with younger children, new to gaming. It will sell well among hardcore gamers in the 18-28 age range.
It will be one of the most amazingly modded systems of all time.
There is so much potential among those that want to convert to “moving games” that I certainly think that you’ll see baseball bats, golf clubs, guns and more that employ the Wii technology. I think standup “arcade-style” mods of the Wii will come about. A few, very motivated devotees will even create “Wii rooms” in their houses for a full spatial Wii experience. I think the Wii will fare much better than the Sega Dreamcast did, but I don’t think we’re on the eve of a revolution. I just don’t buy it.
17 Responses to “Wii’re gonna fail.”
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how can u even say the the ps3 remote is better than the wii remote? Do u even understand the differences. I stopped reading ur rediculous article as soon as i read that ignorant remark. The wii remote sense all movment in a 3 dimensional area within 10meters of where ever u place the strip. The ps3 remote only senses turns of the remote. How can u say thats better? You have no idea what ur talking about. I hope u dont get paid for ur “expert opinions”.
So… Wii will fail because… Because what? Because it doesn’t support HDTV? That’s funny, because most people still don’t have HDTVs, and HDTVs are not likely to be bought by the masses until they are a lot cheaper than today. So, in a few years. Perhaps when Nintendo’s next console (which will support HDTV) is out.
What you are basically saying is that graphics and sound are everything, and that the controller is irrelevant. Most hardcore gamers would disagree with you there. There’s a reason why hardcore PC gamers buy special mice and keyboards to get the most out of their games.
Graphics do matter (a bit), which is why Wii is considerably more powerful than the previous generation of consoles. There will be plenty of eyecandy, but since Wii doesn’t have to support HDTV it doesn’t need monster specs. It can push pretty graphics with much lower specs! So you’ll get great graphics with Wii. You won’t get HD graphics, but as was pointed out, HDTVs won’t be common for a few years still.
And the PS3 controller will be better than the Wiimote because Wii requires a sensor bar? What about the fact that the PS controller is far more limited? Heck, it doesn’t even support rumbling.
As for that $6K PC you are referring to, those are bought by a tiny minority of hardcore PC gamers who can afford that kind of thing. What you are also forgetting is that a PC is a lot more flexible than a PS3, and can do a lot more.
But you may have a point. The PS3 will sell to people with a lot of money and an extreme interest in games. Those same people will probably get a Wii, though. They can afford it, and they love the new controller concept (I should know). So PS3 will sell to a tiny niche market, while Wii will sell to everyone.
In conclusion, you don’t buy the “revolution” because you desperately want Sony to succeed despite the fact that most people are saying that they’ve fouled up. On the other hand, the Wii controller is receiving much praise, and those who have actually tried it are loving it.
Your analytical skills are somewhat rusty, I can see
I think you made some good points in your comment. I think the main issue here is that American gamers aren’t 100% ready for Wii’s style of play.
And I don’t think you can underestimate the draw of graphics and sound. Of course, the $6,000 pc is an extreme example, but if there is a product like that available, there is certainly a market of people who buy it. What is more common, however, is people spending $500-$800 on their graphics card(s) on their pc. It’s the most expensive part of many gaming computers.
As for HDTV, I have to disagree. HDTV is becoming the standard with more and more cable and satellite converting to high definition and on the eve of HD-DVD and Bluray, high resolution is where we’re going.
From a pure ability perspective, I do not think the Playstation 3 controller is better than the Wii controller, I just think it’s going to be easier to pick up for the average gamer. I don’t even like the Playstation 3 controller from a marketing perspective as I said.
Finally, I have no vested interest in seeing Nintendo or Sony succeed or fail. I gave Nintendo credit for the better public relations campaign. I just don’t see the Wii changing all of our lives.
But hey, I hope I’m wrong.
As to the first poster, I sincerely a apologize for any semblance of ignorance, but if you had taken the chance on risking your own intellect to read my whole article, I am merely speculating that Sony’s controller may hold an advantage. I go on to (after my ignorant comment of course, so you wouldn’t have known this) to rip the Sony controller apart for failing to make any design changes.
A negative reaction is expected by many–after all the Wii is clearly being marketed better. But that’s why there are millions of working blogs out there.
Someone has to give an oposing view.
By the way, I’m not a complete quack. In 2000, despite the VMU’s, the built in modem (first in a gaming system) and array of proprietary titles including Phantasy Star and Sonic the Hedgehog, I predicted that the Dreamcast would be caught between a rock and a hard place with Playstation still running the show and Playstation 2 on the way. On February 10, 2001, I had to give the news on Reviewcenter.com that Sega cut the Dreamcast and was leaving the console market. And I was a big fan of the Dreamcast, but you can’t survive on a unique playing title and proprietary titles.
But anyway, thanks for reading!
“I think the main issue here is that American gamers aren’t 100% ready for Wii’s style of play.”
They may well be. The fact is that American gamers are far from ready for the confusion that is today’s console controllers. Lots of buttons and pads and sticks all over the place confuse people, so they avoid gaming. They will be able to pick up gaming on Wii.
“HDTV is becoming the standard”
Is becoming. However, it is still too expensive and too confusing to dominate the market. In a few years, when the next generation consoles are released, HDTV will be more of a standard. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will remain more expensive and more confusing for a few years. Most people do not need extreme quality for their TVs, and will certainly not pay out of their nose for it when DVD is more than good enough for now.
“From a pure ability perspective, I do not think the Playstation 3 controller is better than the Wii controller, I just think it’s going to be easier to pick up for the average gamer.”
That’s kind of the point here. Today’s controllers are complicated and confusing. New people aren’t trying out games because you have to learn all those buttons, and it’s not very intuitive. That’s a real problem, and a problem Nintendo will solve with the Wiimote.
“I just don’t see the Wii changing all of our lives.”
It won’t change all our lives. It will just make it easier to pick up on gaming for most people. And hardcore gamers get a completely new experience. This is why Wii will dominate. It has something new and exciting for everyone.
“I am merely speculating that Sony’s controller may hold an advantage.”
It has a huge disadvantage: Confusion. People are put off gaming because of controllers like that.
Sorry to say it, but HDTV is a mess. It’s a customer-hostile, confusing jumble of nonsense.
Unless this is sorted out we’ll be stuck with crappy res TVs for years to come.
http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/06/07/1080p_not_necessarily_1080p/
It’ll take quite some time to untangle this mess, and then we can start mas-producing better products, and then prices will fall to a reasonable level. We’re talking maybe 5-10 years here.
Excellent discussion points. I just wish you had left your name so that we could continue this conversation.
I think you make some good points, but what really matters here is that you took the time to read the whole article and my other comments.
Just two points here. First of all, as far as HDTV goes, if you walk into any Best Buy or Circuit City, and go into the television section you see the plasmas in their own isle, right up front and then you see all the DLP’s, LCD’s and HD projection screen TV’s all over the place. And they are the ones that go on sale and are promoted by the company. If you want a regular “tube” television, you have to dig deep into the back of the store and they have like 7-10 models and they’re just there.
As for controller ease of use. As much as I don’t like the marketing of the Playstation 3 controller, it’s been the same design for half a dozen years. If there’s one controller that people are used to, it’s this design. Everyone at E3, and these were the cream of the crop as far as gaming goes, said that the Wii controller is going to require some serious getting used to, despite the fact that they loved the concept.
So did the N64 controller when it first came out, and so did the PSX dual analog controller (which is STILL a mess if you ask me).
New things take time to get used to, based upon the brain’s ability to compensate and adjust to muscle movements. The innate ability to KNOW what to do makes Nintendo’s controller great, but even so people will have to get used to the settings.
But this is the same thing we see with keyboard and mouse combinations. The mouse is an incredibly intuitive controller (not realistic, INTUITIVE), one very well suited for PC games.
You state that the Wii will fail because they didn’t release a date or price. Since when did this matter at E3? Microsoft didn’t do such a thing either, and I don’t think that exactly hurt them with the 360 launch. Rather, it’s them not producing enough consoles and not coming up with enough good games (the best games thus far have been PC PORTS).
Or lack of HD capabilities? A small population in America actually own HDTVs.
How about graphics? To be perfectly honest, I had to look at your closely to actually notice the changes between the consoles.
You don’t really put a good reason why the Wii will fail, even though I sort of agree that it will happen.
You also ignored the importance of the Nintendo DS, the way that it also suffered at first for being “innovative” and “gimmicky,” yet the hardware has become incredibly popular, sold better than the PSP, and continually has great games even though it has far less power.
And finally, what about a 6 hour line at E3? Yes, people realize that you need to get used to the controller, but at the same time the reports have stated that the majority of people have actually ENJOYED using it, had fun with the controller.
There’s only one reason you could or should have really put down that really does hurt Nintendo: the stupidity of the consumer. People willing to buy anything just because of a name, even if the games that they have presented are not interesting at all.
I agree that new things take getting used to, and I think that player motion will gradually move into the gaming world. My main point was that I think the console that moves into the “third dimension” of player motion should first max out the visual and audible features first.
Just to clarify, I didn’t say that Wii will fail because they didn’t set a release date or price. I actually said that those factors were helping Nintendo because they raise journalists’ curiosity. Suddenly release date and price become anticipated news stories.
As for the six hour line at E3: Wii is different. It’s never been seen before and everyone wanted to write a good story on it. Also, like I said, Nintendo put on a much, much better show at E3. Everyone agrees with that.
Third party support.
PSX and PS2 had the majority lead, thus had the most market share.
That was 1999-2005. Fast forward to today.
Fewer games are becoming profitable because of high development costs. Developers are afraid to try new ideas, because the cost of developing the game may very well exceed the sales. Every once in a while, someone gets lucky (Katimari), but nobody can deny how the market is swamped with sequals and re-runs. That’s not because of a lack of creativity, it’s because of a lack of funds.
Now we’re getting into high-res HDTV super plasma hologram nonsense tacked in. Don’t expect companies to wander outside their proven franchises after the first year or so. Once the first company takes a 2 million dollar loss on a Halo-lookalike for the PS3, they’ll get the picture. HELLO TONY HAWK 7.
Wii has an advantage because the games are far less expensive to make. Companies will be able to test new grounds for innovation and ideas without fear of bankruptcy.
Also, the Virtual Consol is rumored to allow independent developers make their own games and sell it online. This alone could very well turn gaming into an accepted form of art.
Again, the reason for success in any generation of consols has always been third party support. Forget the high-res, forget the online, history has proven the system with the most exclusive third-party releases wins. Always. Prove me wrong.
Thanks for the comment on my Xanga site. Sincerely, Pete
“As for the six hour line at E3: Wii is different. It’s never been seen before and everyone wanted to write a good story on it.”
As far as I know, very few people had ever played the PS3 before E3. If Wii was just another GameCube, people would be uninterested, regardless of newness.
Playstation 3 is just the next generation of Playstation. But it’s still Playstation. This isn’t Wii 2 or Wii 3 or Wii 4, it’s the Wii and it’s a totally new concept. Of course journalists are going to want to see and cover it.
Yeah, it’s just if the journalists love Wii than who will buy a PS3 for at least $399.99 (if lowered by launch)? I would say somewhat of a niche is interested in 360/PS3.
Keep in mind that if newspeople think this is cool and new, the public may well too.
A niche is not what’s interested in PS3 and 360 because a niche is not what’s interested in PS2 and Xbox–the mainstream, the vast majority of video game consumers purchased Sony and Microsoft over Nintendo over the last two years. In a year’s time, the Wii will (hopefully) have the Niche and the two leaders will still be the two leaders in the American market.
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